Author: Pungky A.S.
January 22, 2026
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to extend its correction at the opening of Thursday's trading session (January 22), with downside potential toward the 8,950–9,000 support range. Selling pressure observed in the previous session signals that the market may be entering a short-term consolidation phase, driven by a combination of technical weakness and heightened global uncertainty.
On Wednesday (January 21), IHSG closed sharply lower by 124.37 points, or 1.36 percent, settling at 9,010. The decline came after the index failed to maintain upward momentum near the psychological resistance level of 9,100, triggering profit-taking activity. Rising trading volume during the decline suggests distribution by short-term market participants.
Technical Outlook: Correction Risk Remains Elevated
From a technical perspective, analysts at Phintraco Sekuritas view the IHSG's current position as vulnerable to further downside. The index closed below its short-term moving average (MA5), signaling weakening bullish momentum. At the same time, the MACD histogram has narrowed while remaining in positive territory, indicating a slowdown in upward momentum and a growing risk of trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the stochastic RSI has turned lower from overbought territory, a condition that typically reflects fading buying pressure and increasing profit-taking activity. Based on these indicators, the IHSG is likely to test its nearest support zone around 8,950–9,000 in the coming sessions.
If this support level holds, the index may enter a sideways consolidation phase. However, a decisive break below 8,950 could open the door for a deeper correction toward the next support range around 8,850–8,900.
Bank Indonesia Policy: Neutral Impact on the Market
On the domestic front, Bank Indonesia's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.75 percent was largely in line with market expectations. Nevertheless, the policy stance has yet to provide a meaningful catalyst to counter the current market correction.
At this stage, BI's monetary policy focus remains on stabilizing the rupiah amid persistent global uncertainty. As a result, monetary easing to support the equity market appears limited, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach while monitoring external developments more closely.
Global Factors: U.S. Developments in Focus
From a global perspective, investor attention is centered on several key events. One major highlight is the speech by U.S. President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Any commentary related to trade policy, fiscal measures, or geopolitical issues could significantly influence global market sentiment, including emerging markets such as Indonesia.
In addition, markets are awaiting the release of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which is expected to show strong quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3 percent in Q3 2025. This figure underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy, supported by robust household consumption, improving export activity, and renewed expansion in government spending.
While strong U.S. economic growth is generally viewed as positive, it may also prolong the high interest rate environment. Elevated U.S. bond yields could continue to attract capital flows away from emerging market equities, adding further pressure to the IHSG in the near term.
Elliott Wave Perspective: Downside Still Possible
MNC Sekuritas also maintains a cautious technical outlook. Based on Elliott Wave analysis, the IHSG is believed to be entering the early stage of wave (iv) within wave 5. Under this scenario, the index remains susceptible to further correction toward the 8,710–8,887 range.
That said, MNC Sekuritas notes the possibility of a technical rebound if the IHSG can hold above key support levels and reclaim the 9,000 mark. In a recovery scenario, immediate resistance is seen around 9,026–9,054, which will serve as a critical test for the sustainability of any rebound.
Stock Recommendations: Selective Trading Opportunities
Given the current market volatility, a selective and short-term trading strategy is considered more appropriate. Phintraco Sekuritas recommends several stocks that continue to show attractive technical setups, including INCO, MEDC, EXCL, BRIS, and HRUM.
Commodity-related stocks such as INCO and HRUM may benefit from relatively stable nickel and coal prices, although global price movements should be closely monitored. MEDC remains attractive amid resilient energy prices, while EXCL and BRIS offer defensive exposure from the telecommunications and Islamic banking sectors, respectively.
Meanwhile, MNC Sekuritas highlights ENRG, IMPC, MBMA, and BMRI as preferred picks. These stocks are considered to have more resilient technical structures and potential rebound opportunities should the broader market begin to stabilize near support levels.
Conclusion: Risk Management Remains Essential
Overall, the IHSG remains in a vulnerable position in the short term, with the 8,950–9,000 range acting as a crucial support zone. As long as the index fails to reclaim the 9,050 resistance level on a sustained basis, market volatility is likely to persist.
Investors and traders are advised to prioritize disciplined risk management, including the use of stop-loss strategies and prudent position sizing. Amid ongoing global uncertainty and unresolved technical signals, a conservative and selective approach remains key to preserving portfolio performance.
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